Germany's Population Expected to Fall 10 Percent by 2070

(MENAFN) Germany faces a far steeper demographic collapse than previously anticipated, with its population projected to contract by roughly 10% by 2070 — a dramatic downward revision from earlier forecasts that had predicted broad stability, according to a report published Tuesday by the Munich-based ifo Institute.

The analysis draws on fresh projections released in December by Germany's federal statistical authority Destatis, which painted a significantly darker picture of the country's demographic trajectory than prior models had suggested. Accelerating population aging, declining birth rates, and a sharply reduced baseline headcount are now reshaping long-term expectations for Europe's largest economy.

A key driver behind the revision is a statistical recalibration: Germany's 2022 census revealed the country had lost 1.3 million residents who had quietly departed over the past decade without formally deregistering — shrinking the population base from which all future projections are calculated.

Building on that lower baseline, the revised outlook anticipates muted near-term immigration and a fertility rate sliding to 1.31 children per woman in 2025, before partially recovering to 1.47 by 2040. Crucially, because most recent immigrants tend to be young adults still early in their reproductive years, a smaller migrant pool translates directly into fewer potential parents and, consequently, fewer births in the decades ahead. By 2030, the new model projects 150,000 fewer births compared to previous estimates — a shortfall whose compounding effects stand to deepen population decline well into the century.

The aging of Germany's population will intensify considerably in tandem. The cohort of retirement-age residents — those 67 and older — is forecast to surge nearly 30% by the mid-2030s, pushing their share of the total population from 19.6% to approximately 24.9%, or close to one in four Germans. Simultaneously, the working-age population and younger generations, defined as those between 20 and 66, could shrink by as much as 20% over the long term.

The burden will not fall evenly across the country. Eastern German states face the sharpest contraction, with overall population there projected to plunge 22% by 2070. Their working-age and youth populations could collapse by as much as 30%, compared with a comparatively modest 9% overall decline expected across western states.

Even a sustained net migration intake averaging 250,000 people annually is unlikely to fully offset the hemorrhaging of the labor force, the ifo Institute cautioned.

The consequences extend well beyond demographics. The institute warned that without proactive intervention, the population shift threatens to destabilize the German economy, strain public infrastructure, and undermine social security systems. Policymakers, it urged, must urgently incorporate these findings into long-term planning — particularly around workforce staffing and pension reform — before the mounting costs of demographic change become unmanageable.

MENAFN18022026000045017169ID1110756052